Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Thursday, April 27

The Gathering Storm: Polls Show Public is Angry

The latest NBC/Wall Street poll reveals a surly public that detests George Bush, is worried about the gasoline prices and the economy, and favors a change to Democratic control of Congress (numbers from March in parens):
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president?

Approve 36% (37%)
Disapprove 57% (58%)
Not sure 7% (5%)

Which causes you the most concern?

Gas reaching $3 per gallon 45%
Iran building a nuclear weapon 33%
The issue of illegal immigration 26%
Continued civil disorder in Iraq 23%
Bush admin leaking national security information 18%
Corruption in the business world, as in Enron 11%
Duke lacrosse team sexual assault allegations 3%
Other 1%

Which is closer to your view of the economy?

Confident about the economy 19%
Uneasy about the economy 77%
Some of both 3%

What is your preference for this year’s election a Republican or Democratic controlled congress?

Republicans 39% (37%)
Democrats 45% (50%)
Not sure 16% (13%)
Put these numbers together with today's USA Today/Gallup poll, which found that Republicans are increasingly disenchanted with Bush as well, and less enthusiastic about voting in the fall than Democrats:
A recent USA Today/Gallup survey finds Republican enthusiasm for the 2006 congressional elections waning at the same time that Democratic enthusiasm is at a record high. That disparity could have significant implications for voter turnout in the fall, therefore accentuating the relatively weak support seen for Republican candidates with the general electorate. In other words, the Democrats' greater enthusiasm makes a shift in power in Congress from Republican to Democratic control even more possible, given that turnout in midterm elections is usually a critical factor in the ultimate outcome.

According to the survey, conducted April 7-9, 2006, Democrats lead Republicans by 10 percentage points, 52% to 42%, among all registered voters as the party they are more likely to support in their local congressional race. Typically Republicans can count on higher turnout from their members to significantly contract Democrats' lead among all voters, but whether that happens in 2006 is currently in doubt.

When asked how they feel about voting in this year's congressional elections compared to previous years, the plurality of Republicans, 47%, now say they are less enthusiastic; only 33% say they are more enthusiastic. This is a sharp change from January, when the Republican numbers were nearly reversed; 47% were more enthusiastic and 32% less enthusiastic. Over the same period Democrats' enthusiasm has held constant, with 48% saying they are more enthusiastic and slightly fewer saying less enthusiastic. ...

Bush's 74% approval rating among Republicans is particularly ominous for the party in that it is identical to the rating President Bill Clinton received from Democrats on the eve of the 1994 elections in which Clinton's party lost control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
While we political activists are fussing and fighting and responding to the daily minutiae, there are huge dark clouds gathering on the horizon. Public anger at this administration reaches deep into the populace and is building steadily. The storm unleashed in November could be unlike anything we've ever seen.


At 9:37 AM, Blogger Jill said...

Excellent post, Jeff. I really appreciate the juxtaposition of takes on the bigger picture with what we're trying to accomplish on a local and state and daily basis here. Thanks.

At 9:50 PM, Blogger Pauli said...

Be careful the picture doesn't get too big! Democrats have often gotten big numbers in polls when no names are given but fare worse in one-on-one matchups.

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