Gov & Sen: Strickland (D) and Brown (D) Lead in Dispatch Poll

A huge 20% lead for gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Ted Strickand (D-Lisbon), and a significant 8% lead for senatorial candidate Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon), according to a poll by the Columbus Dispatch released today:The pollsters contacted 1,654 registered voters during the period July 11-20, much of which was after the advent of DeWine's attack ad.

The internal numbers are very interesting. In the gubernatorial race, Strickland does much better among Democrats (81%-2%) than Blackwell among Republicans (61%-12%). Strickland picks up 18% of those who voted for Bush in 2004 and 28% of those who voted for Gov. Bob Taft (R) in 2002. Independents favor Strickland by 47% to 14%, and in a very surprising finding black voters favor Strickland by 68% to 14%; Blackwell's support in previous statewide contests has ranged from 20% to 30%. This latter number should be treated with caution, however, because there were only 99 black respondents in the poll.

In the senatorial race, DeWine's Republican support is also soft but not as soft as Blackwell's. Brown polls at 82% to 8% among Democrats, while DeWine's numbers for Republicans are 75% to 8%, with independents going to Brown by 42% to 27%. Brown picks up 13% of Bush voters and 22% of Taft voters. Union households favor Brown by 60% to 24%, and black voters also favor Brown by 78% to 10%.

It should be noted that neither poll leader is above the important 50% line, and the numbers of undecided voters are sufficient to swing the results in either contest.