Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Sunday, July 23

Gov & Sen: Strickland (D) and Brown (D) Lead in Dispatch Poll

A huge 20% lead for gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Ted Strickand (D-Lisbon), and a significant 8% lead for senatorial candidate Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon), according to a poll by the Columbus Dispatch released today:The pollsters contacted 1,654 registered voters during the period July 11-20, much of which was after the advent of DeWine's attack ad.

The internal numbers are very interesting. In the gubernatorial race, Strickland does much better among Democrats (81%-2%) than Blackwell among Republicans (61%-12%). Strickland picks up 18% of those who voted for Bush in 2004 and 28% of those who voted for Gov. Bob Taft (R) in 2002. Independents favor Strickland by 47% to 14%, and in a very surprising finding black voters favor Strickland by 68% to 14%; Blackwell's support in previous statewide contests has ranged from 20% to 30%. This latter number should be treated with caution, however, because there were only 99 black respondents in the poll.

In the senatorial race, DeWine's Republican support is also soft but not as soft as Blackwell's. Brown polls at 82% to 8% among Democrats, while DeWine's numbers for Republicans are 75% to 8%, with independents going to Brown by 42% to 27%. Brown picks up 13% of Bush voters and 22% of Taft voters. Union households favor Brown by 60% to 24%, and black voters also favor Brown by 78% to 10%.

It should be noted that neither poll leader is above the important 50% line, and the numbers of undecided voters are sufficient to swing the results in either contest.


At 8:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You need to change the headline. It says Dewine (D), where it should be Brown (d)

At 9:17 AM, Blogger Daniella said...

I think that Bown doing MTB is great but I also would like to see Blackwell vs Strickland live and unedited by commercials and talking heads.

At 1:49 PM, Blogger Modern Esquire said...

For what it's worth, my own analysis of the poll:

At 9:06 AM, Blogger K Lee said...

Poll results look encouraging. However, I hope Strickland camp is prepared for an October surprise. I'm sure Republican Christianistas will follow their playbook and try to scare the hell out of Ohioans in October.

At 3:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There isn't going to be an "October surprise." The campaign is on nowm and Blackwell's playbook is going to have to yield some better moves than what's his shown. The problem for Blackwell is positions, such as they are, are immovably out of touch with the interests of Ohioans. He's pretty much milked the anti-gay angle for all he can. His education and economic plans are nothing but useless gimmicks that appear to have been given an absolute minimum of thought.

Once you've made a total mess of things for a year and have been behind in every poll, there's no piece of magic you can whip out to suddenly turn things around.

At 3:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Also, the only thing the "Christianistas" are going to scare people about is themselves.


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