Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Monday, October 30

Cong OH-12: Shamansky (D) Only 5 Points Behind Tiberi (R)

A new independent poll by Majority Watch has Bob Shamansky (D-Bexley) very close to incumbent Pat Tiberi (R-Westerville):

51% Tiberi (R)
46% Shamansky (D)
3% Undecided

The problem for Shamansky is that Tiberi is over 50%, so adding the undecided voters to Shamansky's total won't overcome Tiberi's lead. However, the poll indicates that more among Tiberi's supporters are "weak" than among Shamansky's backers. Of those with a strong opinion, Tiberi's lead is only 41% to 40%.

Bush's approval rating is only 38%, the same proportion as there were Republicans in the sample. Independents constituted 28% of the sample and Democrats 34%.

The poll was taken October 24-26 from 1002 respondents and has a margin of error of 3.9%.

UPDATE: I'm told that within the Franklin County portion of the 12th Congressional District, Shamansky leads Tiberi 49% to 48%. This bodes well for the Democratic candidates in the 3rd Ohio Senate District and the 20th Ohio House District, i.e., Emily Kreider (D-Westerville) and Bev Campbell (D-Gahanna).


At 12:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't neglect the margin of error, which is basically +/- 3%, which actually makes this race a statistical tie.


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