Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Thursday, September 6

New Poll Shows Ohio Trending Blue in Presidential Race

Dave Harding at ProgressOhio.org calls our attention to this Quinnipiac poll out today, which registers a significant shift in Ohio regarding the presidential race. As the pollsters puts it, Ohio "is turning blue in the 2008 campaign, with Democratic candidates winning 11 of 12 matchups with Republican contenders." Here are intra-party results, which show Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) consolidating her lead over Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) but Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) slipping somewhat against Fred Thompson (R-VA)(parenthetical numbers are from August 8):

44% (41%) - Clinton (D)
15% (16%) - Obama (D)
11% (11%) - Edwards (D)
8% (8%) - Gore (D)

21% (29%) - Giuliani (R)
15% (11%) - Thompson (R)
10% (11%) - McCain (R)
9% (8%) - Gingrich (R)
8% (8%) - Romney (R)

Here are the head-to-head matchups, which show Edwards as having the best overall advantage over likely Republican nominees but he and Clinton both doing well, while Obama is virtually tied with Giuliani and McCain:

47% (43%) - Clinton (D)
40% (43%) - Giuliani (R)

46% - Clinton (D)
41% - McCain (R0

49% (47%) - Clinton (D)
37% (36%) - Thompson (R)

50% - Clinton (D)
37% - Romney (R)

42% (39%) - Obama (D)
41% (42%) - Giuliani (R)

41% - Obama (D)
42% - McCain (R)

46% (44%) - Obama (D)
34% (32%) - Thompson (R)

46% - Obama (D)
32% - Romney (R)

47% - Edwards (D)
38% - Giuliani (R)

46% - Edwards (R)
38% - McCain (R)

50% - Edwards (D)
32% - Thompson (R)

50% - Edwards (D)
30% - Romney (R)

It is still early to pay too much attention to polls, and of course the late Ohio primary will have no impact on the nominations. Still, the shift of support to Democratic candidates is substantial and very significant. The overall climate in Ohio appears, at this time, to be moving in the direction of the Democratic Party.

Among the Democrats, all three major candidates have seen their favorability ratings improve since last month:

51%/43% (49%/41%) - Clinton (D)
47%/25% (44%/25%) - Obama (D)
54%/26% (46%/29%) - Edwards (D)

Clinton's margin is still less than the other two, but it is interesting that she has pulled her favorables above the critical 50% line. However, the amount of improvement is very slight. On the Republican side, Giuliani's favorability rating of 48%/30% remains essentially unchanged from his August score of 48%/29%.

Bush's approval rating is up slightly but still bad at 64%/32%. In July he was at 66%/29%.

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