Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Thursday, May 25

Gov & US Sen: Strickland (D) and DeWine (R) Lead in New Poll

Faminehorse at Psychobilly Democrat has just posted the results of a new poll from the University of Cincinnati:
Ted Strickland (D) 50
Ken Blackwell (R) 44
Other 2
Undecided 5

U.S. Senate:

Mike DeWine (R) 52
Sherrod Brown (D) 42
Other 1
Undecided 5
These results contrast sharply with the last Rasmussen poll, which showed Strickland with a 16 point lead and DeWine trailing Brown by 3 points.

UPDATE: The Cleveland Plain Dealer "blog" Openers looks a little deeper, noting that Strickland and Brown both trail their rivals in name recognition, and despite his labor backing Brown trails DeWine in union households 54-43. Democracy Guy is all over it.

2nd UPDATE: The AP story on this poll, as reported in the Akron Beacon Journal, takes a closer look at the favorability ratings:
When asked whether they had a positive opinion of the candidates, people of all parties gave Strickland a 10 percent favorability rating. Blackwell's was lower at just 3 percent, fueled by a heavy unfavorable sentiment among registered Democrats. The rating measures the percentage difference between voters with positive and negative opinions of the candidate.

DeWine was viewed most positively, receiving a 15 percent favorability rating, compared to 7 percent for Brown.

The poll also revealed a significant lack of information about the candidates among registered voters. Forty-five percent of voters surveyed - and particularly independents - said they know too little about Blackwell to judge him. Fifty-one percent said they still need more information about Strickland, with only those in his southeastern Ohio congressional district claiming adequate knowledge.
3rd UPDATE: Okay, so now I've studied the internal numbers myself and this is what jumps out at me:

* Among African-American voters, Strickland leads Blackwell 55% to 32%, less than Brown's lead over DeWine among this group (67% to 17%), with a relatively large 13% undecided in each race. However, Blackwell's favorability rating among African-American respondents is -13 (26% to 39%), while Strickland's is even (12% to 12%), and notice how many fewer responded at all as to Strickland. Strickland has work to do, but there's plenty of hope here.

* Strickland leads Blackwell among Independents 46% to 27%, and among Moderates 47% to 36%. That's huge. Brown trails among Independents 38% to 47%, and among Moderates 31% to 57%.

* Unfortunately for Brown, DeWine's numbers don't show as much of a problem with his ideological base as I would expect. DeWine's support among Conservatives is 67%, only four points lower than Brown's support among Liberals (71%).

* Brown leads 50% to 43% among those 65 or older. He trails by 6% among those 46 to 64, and by double-digits among those in younger brackets. However, this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, and older voters are more reliable.

* Brown is merely tied in his geographic base of NE Ohio (47% to 47%), but leads in SE Ohio (53% to 44%), while trailing elsewhere, especially in DeWine's SW Ohio base (34% to 61%). What's the deal with SE Ohio -- is it a Strickland effect?


At 8:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This poll is clearly crap. Only 10% of those polled were independents, where as 60% of registered voters in the state are. Also, they seriously under polled African- Americans. They have 20% of self-described liberals going for Blackwell. There is no way this poll is accurate.

Russell over at BSB, usually no Sherrod Brown fan, says this poll is crap:


At 8:51 PM, Blogger Yellow Dog Sammy said...

This is music to my ears. I don't like this poll at all. Also, the idea of Blackwell narrowing the gap by 10% in a week and a half is ridiculous, even though that's how they portrayed it on the news this evening.

So, I'm delighted to disregard this poll.

At 11:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's agggravating that any news outlet would portray the results of two different polls with different samples and different methodology as an actual, factual "narrowing the gap" rather than simply a "polls differ at this point" reality. They should know better than to think each of these polls represents quantifiable fact, and that something has happened in the world that has caused an enormous number of voters to break for Blackwell. I'll bet they didn't mention what it was- of course not, because no such thing happened.

At 6:30 PM, Anonymous KevinHayden said...

By far, Rasmussen is the more credible poll, so I'd put little weight in the latest numbers

At 10:10 AM, Anonymous Eric Kephas said...

Rasmussen's results have been very different than every other organization polling, though.

They were accurate in 2004, but now it's: Rasmussen vs The Ohio Poll and Zogby, with the last two both consistently saying Strickland's lead is only at around 5 points.

I don't know where the numbers really stand, but I think it's wishful thinking to just shrug off all the polls except for the one you like.


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