Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Tuesday, August 8

Cong. OH-1: Cranley (D) Tied With Chabot (R)

I just received an email from 1st Ohio Congressional District candidate John Cranley announcing that his polling shows he has gained nine points on incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot and pulled into a dead heat:

July 2006:

45% Cranley
45% Chabot
10% Undecided

March 2006:
40% Cranley
49% Chabot
11% Undecided

Both polls were conducted by Anzalone-Liszt Research and paid for by Cranley for Congress. According to Cranley, the Chabot campaign and the NRC have conducted polls but haven't released any results, so it's pretty apparent that they're not good for the incumbent.

All the energy and momentum in this race is on Cranley's side.

Update: Goodies from the supporting memo:
* Cranley is gaining despite Chabot’s 3-to-2 advantage in name ID (90% for Chabot to 60% for Cranley).
* Chabot gets a 50% positive job rating and 43% negative, compared to 56% positive/34% negative in March.
* 45% say they would vote to re-elect Steve Chabot while 47% plan on voting for someone new.
* 56% of voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, 24% believe it is moving in the right direction.
* George Bush gets a 62% negative job rating in the district.

2 Comments:

At 8:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great! I'd rather be over 40 and rising as a challenger than under 50 and dropping as an incumbent - that 45% vote for Chabot, in both the head-to-head matchup and the vote for/consider someone else question, is looking like a ceiling, not a floor!

 
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