Cong OH-15: Kilroy (D) Still in Contention

The Columbus Dispatch reports today that there are about 20,000 provisional and absentee ballots yet to be counted in the Franklin County portion of the 15th Congressional District. The latest unofficial results from the Secretary of State show Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) trailing Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Upper Arlington) by only 3,536 votes:

101,636 (50.89%) - Pryce (R)
98,100 (49.11%) - Kilroy (D)

Kilroy won 51.24% of the Franklin County votes already counted. Applying this ratio to the 20,000 uncounted provisional and absentee ballots yields a net gain of only about 500 votes. However, provisional ballots in general tend to break more for the Democratic candidate than other kinds of ballots, and many of these provisional ballots are from students at the University of Ohio, among whom Kilroy did very well. If Kilroy gets 59% of the remaining 20,000 votes, she wins.