Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Monday, May 1

Dispatch and Plain Dealer Polls

Results of the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mason-Dixon poll are here and the Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll are linked here.

Governor Rep. Ted Strickland (D-Lisbon) leads former State Rep. Bryan Flannery (D-Strongsville) by such large margins (64% to 11% in the PD poll, 86% to 14% in the Dispatch poll) that one begins to wonder if Democratic turnout will be lowered due to lack of interest. Will some Dems vote in the Republican primary instead? If so, will they vote for Blackwell as more beatable, or Petro as less scary? (Update: This item in the Akron Beacon Journal reports that a letter is being circulated among non-union school employees urging them to ask for a Republican primary ballot and vote for Petro, because of Blackwell's support for a plan to direct 65% of each education doller into the classroom. I wonder how many other groups are doing this because of Blackwell's support of the Tax and Expenditure Limitation Amendment?)

Defeat looks assured for Attorney Jim Petro (R-Rocky River), with Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R-Cincinnati) leading 50% to 29% in the PD poll and 56% to 44% in the Dispatch poll. I am truly surprised; I thought this race would tighten up at the end. Blackwell has succeeded in two improbable ways - by making this race "about" steadfast opposition to gay marriage and abortion, even though one would think the dreadful state of Ohio's economy would matter much more, and by casting himself as a candidate of "change," even though Blackwell has been a statewide officeholder throughout the dozen years of Republican domination of Ohio government. The geographical breakdown of the Dispatch poll shows that Blackwell leads in Petro's northeast Ohio base by 57% to 43%, and in Blackwell's southwest Ohio base by 74% to 26%. The former set of numbers shocks me.

The PD poll shows Strickland beating Blackwell 47% to 37%, and beating Petro by the narrower margin of 44% to 38%.

Other Statewide Races The Dispatch poll results for other statewide races:

Senate
Sherrod Brown (D) 87%, Merrill Keiser Jr. (D) 13%
Mike DeWine (R) 83%, William Pierce 9%, David R. Smith 8%

Attorney General
Marc Dann (D) 71%, Subodh Chandra (D) 29%
Betty Montgomery (R) 77%, Timothy Grendell (R) 23%

Treasurer
Jenette Bradley (R) 53%, Sandra O'Brien 47%

Supreme Court
William O'Neill (D) 65%, A.J. Wagner (D) 35%
Ben Espy (D) 50%, Peter Sikora (D) 50%

It's surprising that Keiser gets as much as 13% against Brown, and that neither Pierce nor Smith can break into double-digits against DeWine. The PD poll shows DeWine leading Brown by 47% to 36% in a head-to-head general election matchup.

It's surprising that Chandra is so far behind Dann. Dann has the endorsement of the state party, but Chandra has been endorsed by a host of newspapers and Democratic elected officials. Weak fundraising by Chandra, and the resulting imbalance of advertising in favor of Dann, appears to be the reason.

O'Brien's attacks on incumbent Bradley over coingate and ideology (Bradley is pro-choice) are having an effect, but it appears that Bradley will squeak through.

In the Supreme Court races, Wagner and Espy are the endorsed candidates and have more advertising, so I'm very surprised that they aren't leading. O'Neill and Sikora apparently benefit from statewide name recognition due to their past campaigns for the high court.

Right Track/Wrong Track and Trust This is all bad news for the Republicans. The Dispatch poll has Democrats saying that Ohio is on the wrong track by a 95% to 5% margin, and Republicans agreeing by 77% to 23%. The PD poll has voters trusting Democrats more than Republicans by 44% to 33% on the issue of economy and jobs, 41% to 28% on taxes and government spending, 43% to 31% on education, and 30% to 21% on honesty in government.

That last item is very telling. The scandals in Ohio government are basically all about Republicans, but many voters nevertheless regard neither party as trustworthy as to ethics, so this area isn't as strong for Democrats as it should be. On the other hand, to have Democrats trusted more than Republicans on taxes and government spending is very surprising and completely wonderful news for the Democratic Party.

2 Comments:

At 3:33 PM, Blogger Lisa Renee said...

Thanks for the update from the Akron Beacon Journal, I've heard similar things locally as far as people thinking about requesting a Republican ballot because of Blackwell. I hadn't heard anything organized quite like this, but I do wonder what impact that is going to have.

 
At 9:45 PM, Blogger Pauli said...

Blackwell is talking about more than just gay marriage and abortion. Petro's folks tried to smear T.E.L, but a similar bill worked in Colorado to fix their state economy. Look for more on the "65 Cent Solution" in the months to come, a real education fix that avoid endless tax raises that Blackwell is behind as well as many teachers to whom I've spoken.

 

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