Ohio2006 Blog

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Tuesday, October 10

New Bliss Poll Shows Strickland (D) Far Ahead, Brown (D) & DeWine (R) Tied

A new poll from the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron shows that gubernatorial candidate Rep. Ted Strickland (D-Lisbon) is maintaining a huge lead over Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R-Cincinnati) while the Senate race between Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon) and Mike DeWine (R-Cedarville) is very tight. Numbers are likely voters (with all respondents in parentheses):

47.4% (40.6%) Strickland (D)
33.8% (26.5%) Blackwell (R)
3.4% (4.2%) Other
15.5% (28.7%) Undecided

41.5% (35.0%) Brown (D)
41.7% (36.3%) DeWine (R)
2.5% (3.2%) Other
14.3% (24.4%) Undecided

Two-thirds of Ohioans (67.9%) said the state is on the "wrong track." 74.4% said Ohio is on the wrong track as to the economy, 56.8% said it is on the wrong track as to moral climate.

This random telephone survey of 1,073 Ohioans was taken from August 20th to September 29th. The margin of error is 4.5 points as to likely voters, 3 points overall.

1 Comments:

At 12:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The poll is a outlier. All other polls show Brown leading DeWhine. The Rasmussen poll from last week has Brown up by 49% to 41%.

Here are the problems with this poll..

- Bliss Institute poll was conducted between August 20th and September 29th. Its very unusual for a poll to span 6 weeks. It only has 477 likely voters with MOE of +-4.5%.

- It has 54.5% males and 45.5% females (10% less females). In reality females vote in higher numbers than males historically.

- It has only 8.4% black voters which is a smaller percentage than the normal.

- Out of all likely voters polled it has, 41% earning more than $72,000 and 22% earning $54,000 to $72,000. This is absurd . Do you think that 41% of Ohions voters earn more than 72K and a whopping 63% earn more than 54K?? Among 41% earning more than $72,000 DeWine is leading 50 to 35.

So its clear that this poll is skewed!

http://www.uakron.edu/bliss/docs/FallPollReportFall2006draft2_2_.pdf

 

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