Cong OH-2: Wulsin (D) to Wait for Final Count

The deadlocked 2nd Congressional District race is reviewed in the Cincinnati Enquirer today. Rep. "Mean Jean" Schmidt (R-Loveland) has declared victory in the contest and her spokesman has urged Vic Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) to concede. However, Wulsin has declined to concede and commentators agree that she should persevere, although the odds are against her at this point.

Wulsin trails by 2,323 votes out of 225,541 cast, or just over 1%. The article indicates that there are about 4,400 uncounted provisional ballots from Hamilton County and there will be several thousand more from the other counties in the district. It would be a stretch for Wulsin to net 2,323 votes out of that number, but campaign staffer Ady Barkan noted that "we have reason to believe these could break for us." She referred to the fact that provisional ballots often are cast by voters who have moved, and those are more likely to be among the Democratic-leaning young and/or poor portions of the population.

"It would be remarkable to make up that margin," said Gene Beaupre, a Xavier University political science professor. "Having said that, there's no reason for her not to try."

If the final count reduces Schmidt's lead to under 1%, Wulsin can request a recount. However, a recount is unlikely to make any difference unless the margin is considerably less than 1%. That is a decision that Wulsin won't have to face until after November 28th.