Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Tuesday, October 24

Gov & Sen: Strickland (D) Leads By 20, Brown (D) By 8 in New Poll

A poll released by MSNBC today shows Rep. Ted Strickland (D-Lisbon) with a 20 point lead over Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R-Cincinnati) and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon) with an eight point lead over Sen. Mike DeWine (R-Cedarville):

54% Strickland (D)
34% Blackwell (R)
1% Other
11% Undecided

48% Brown (D)
40% DeWine (R)
3% Other
9% Undecided

Strickland's favorable rating is 48% to Blackwell's 29%, unfavorable is 17% to 40%. Brown and DeWine are nearly tied on favorability (40% to 41%), but Brown's unfavorability rating of 25% is significantly lower than DeWine's at 35%.

The overall sour mood of the electorate continues with 43% of respondents approving Bush's job performance to 56% diapproving, 23% approving of Congress' job performance to 71% against, and 59% saying that the country is on the wrong track.

The economy is most often cited as the biggest factor in determining votes at 21%, and 67% of voters are worried about the direction of the economy. Iraq is the second most cited factor at 19%, and a majority of voters disapprove of the administration's handling of the war (57%) and favor withdrawing some or all US troops (53%). Moral/family issues are the third most cited factor at 13%, terrorism is the fourth at 11%, health care and taxes are tied for fifth at 9%, and immigration (the Republican's new bugbear) is seventh at 6%.

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon for MSNBC/McClatchy from October 18th through October 20th of 625 likely Ohio voters. It has a margon of error of 4 points. The sample included 39% Republicans, 35% Democrats, and 26% independents.

UPDATE: Thanks to Pho for pointing out (in one of the regrettably few posts we get on Pho's Akron Pages these days) that the same pollster showed Sherrod Brown with only a two point lead last month (45% to 43%), so the trend is in favor of the challenger. Prior poll results here.


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