Democrats May Will Take the Ohio House of Representatives

I was not going to make election-eve predictions, but something has happened to change my mind. Buckeye State Blog and Psychobilly Democrat are both reporting that the Republican Senate Campaign Committee is putting out robo-calls tonight in which the recorded caller says something like "I'm Megan [or Amy, or whoever] and I'm voting for Ted Strickland, but I'm not voting for Judy Hanna [or Emily Kreider, or whoever] because [blah, blah, blah] ..." Aside from the sheer blood-sport spectacle of seeing the Republican establishment turn on its own gubernatorial candidate, the significance of this development is that the GOP's own polling has pushed them to pursue desperate "Hail Mary" tactics. Somehow, this has shaken me out of my reticence.

Under the circumstances, I cannot remain silent.

In the Ohio Senate, the Democrats need to gain six seats to take control and they won't get it. However, they will gain. I expect them to hold all of their own seats and definitely pick up one more (Sue Morano over Martha Wise for the open 13th District seat) and one or two out of three other close contests as well (Emily Kreider against incumbent David Goodman in the 3rd, Judy Hanna against incumbent Kevin Coughlin in the 27th, and Tom West against incumbent Kirk Schuring in the 29th). If forced to guess, I'd say Kreider will win and Hanna and West will lose narrowly.

In the Ohio House, the Democrats need to gain eleven seats to take control and I now think that they will. I expect the Democrats to lose one seat (Tim Cassell in the 63rd District), which means that I expect Jay Goyal in the 73rd and Mark Okey in the 61st to retain open seats. I also expect the Democrats to pick up at least twelve out of the following seventeen:

1st - Linda Bolon over Jim Hoppel for an open seat
18th - John Celebrezze over incumbent Tom Patton
20th - Bev Campbell over incumbent Ross McGregor
21st - Dean Hernandez over Kevin Bacon for an open seat
22nd - John Carney over incumbent Jim Hughes
24th - Ted Celeste over incumbent Geoff Smith
42nd - Paul Colavecchio over incumbent John Widowfield
43rd - Stephen Dyer over Christine Croce for an open seat
57th - Matt Lundy over incumbent Earl Martin
58th - Matthew Barrett over appointed incumbent Dan White
64th - Tom Letson over incumbent Randy Law
72nd - Dale Henry over incumbent Ross McGregor
78th - Adam Ward over John Adams for an open seat
81st - Darrell Opfer over incumbent Jeff Wagner
91st - Dan Dodd over Bill Hayes for an open seat
92nd - Debbie Phillips over incumbent Jimmy Stewart
98th - Ray Ku over incumbent Mat Dolan

So, yes, I expect a shift in control of the House.