Ohio2006 Blog

News, analysis, and comments on Ohio elections.

Sunday, November 5

DISPATCH POLL: DEMOCRATIC TSUNAMI

The final Columbus Dispatch poll forecasts a Democratic tide that will sweep all of the statewide offices (except the Ohio Supreme Court): Rep. Ted Strickland (D-Lisbon) leads in the governor's race by 36 points, Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon) for U.S. Senator by 24, Marc Dann (D-Liberty Township) for Attorney General by 10, State Rep. Barbara Sykes (D-Akron) for State Auditor by 10, former judge Jennifer Brunner (D-Columbus) for Secretary of State by 21, and County Treasurer Richard Cordray (D-Grove City) for State Treasurer by 28. Results in parens are from last month:

67% (52%) Strickland (D)
31% (33%) Blackwell (R)

62% (47%) Brown (D)
38% (42%) DeWine (R)

55% (39%) Dann (D)
45% (47%) Montgomery (R)

55% (44%) Sykes (D)
45% (32%) Taylor (R)

58% (36%) Brunner (D)
37% (28%) Hartmann (R)

64% (45%) Cordray (D)
36% (34%) O'Brien (R)

UPDATE: The Cleveland Plain Dealer released its results on the Senate race today and it shows Brown leading DeWine by the much narrower margin of 6 points (50% - 44%), tighter by 2 points than their last poll. This contrast suggests that the huge lead in the Dispatch poll is an outlier.

More than a third of voters (35%) plan to vote a straight Democratic ticket. More independents are voting straight Democrat than are voting straight Republican by a 5-1 margin. Strickland is supported by 43% of people who voted for Taft for governor, 33% of voters for Bush. The one bleak spot in the poll is the Supreme Court where one race is going strongly Republican and the other is tied:

45% O'Neill (D)
55% O'Donnell (R)

49% Espy (D)
51% Cupp (R)

The Dispatch also polled statewide ballot issues 3, 4 and 5, but not 2 (saying that it is too long!). The casino gambling issue is trailing badly, as is the tobacco-sponsored partial smoking ban, but the stronger smoking ban is well ahead:

Issue 3 - Gambling
42% For
58% Against

Issue 4 - "Smoke Less"
37% For
63% Against

Issue 5 - "Smoke Free"
59% For
41% Against

This is a mail-in poll with a margin of error of 2.2 points. 1541 voters returned the questionnaire, substantially more of them Democrats than Republicans (658 to 507), indicating greater enthusiasm for the election. Turnout usually favors Republicans slightly, so big Democratic turnout is a prerequisite for fulfilling this poll's predictions.

1 Comments:

At 11:34 AM, Anonymous Anastasia said...

I"m baffled by the thing about Issue 2 being "too long." It's the one issue no one is asking me to explain to them. I had breakfast with a friend yesterday specifically because she wanted me to explain the issues to her. We spend about one minute on Issue 2 and over half on hour a piece on Issue 3 and Issues 4 and 5. We even discussed 18 and 19 (the county issues) longer than 2. Once you've disposed of the "your personal info will be available to all" canard, there's nothing more to say.

 

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